Backtest Results
78
Total Predictions
69
Correct
88.5%
Accuracy
0.1069
Avg Brier Score
Simulated ROI
$-779.60
Total P&L
36.0%
Win Rate
25
Total Trades
Trade History
| Market | Date | Direction | Buy Price | Our Prob | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Purdue win the NCAA tournament? | 2024-04-08 | No | 70.5% | 7.0% | Won | $41.84 |
| Will South Carolina win the Women's NCAA tournament? | 2024-04-08 | No | 17.0% | 0.2% | Lost | $-100.00 |
| Will Iowa win the Women's NCAA tournament? | 2024-04-08 | No | 38.0% | 0.2% | Won | $163.16 |
| Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 2025-04-07 | Yes | 0.1% | 9.5% | Lost | $-100.00 |
| Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 2025-04-07 | Yes | 48.7% | 80.0% | Lost | $-100.00 |
| Will Connecticut win the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament? | 2025-04-06 | No | 27.5% | 3.0% | Lost | $-100.00 |
| Will South Carolina win the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament? | 2025-04-06 | No | 72.0% | 0.2% | Won | $38.89 |
| Will Duke win the ACC conference tournament? | 2025-03-17 | No | 0.0% | 9.5% | Lost | $-100.00 |
| Will Arizona win the Big 12 conference tournament? | 2025-03-17 | Yes | 0.1% | 65.0% | Lost | $-100.00 |
| Will Houston win the Big 12 conference tournament? | 2025-03-17 | No | 0.0% | 80.0% | Lost | $-100.00 |
| Will Wisconsin win the Big Ten conference tournament? | 2025-03-17 | No | 39.5% | 0.2% | Won | $153.16 |
| Will Michigan win the Big Ten conference tournament? | 2025-03-17 | Yes | 39.5% | 95.0% | Won | $153.16 |
| Will Illinois win the Big Ten conference tournament? | 2025-03-17 | Yes | 0.1% | 12.0% | Lost | $-100.00 |
| Will Purdue win the Big Ten conference tournament? | 2025-03-17 | Yes | 0.1% | 7.0% | Lost | $-100.00 |
| Will Tennessee win the SEC Tournament? | 2025-03-17 | No | 67.5% | 0.9% | Won | $48.15 |
| Will Florida win the SEC Tournament? | 2025-03-17 | No | 33.0% | 50.0% | Lost | $-100.00 |
| Will Auburn win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 2025-03-31 | No | 31.5% | 0.2% | Lost | $-100.00 |
| Will Michigan win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 2025-03-31 | Yes | 0.1% | 95.0% | Lost | $-100.00 |
| Will Florida win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 2025-03-31 | No | 0.0% | 50.0% | Lost | $-100.00 |
| Will Arizona win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 2025-03-31 | Yes | 0.1% | 65.0% | Lost | $-100.00 |
| Will Duke win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 2025-03-31 | No | 0.0% | 9.5% | Lost | $-100.00 |
| Will Tennessee win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 2025-03-31 | No | 59.5% | 0.9% | Won | $68.07 |
| Will Purdue win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 2025-03-31 | Yes | 0.1% | 7.0% | Lost | $-100.00 |
| Will Houston win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 2025-03-31 | Yes | 60.5% | 80.0% | Won | $65.29 |
| Will Duke win by 6+ points against Houston? | 2025-04-06 | No | 53.0% | 9.5% | Won | $88.68 |
By Divergence
| Edge Size | Total | Correct | Accuracy | Brier | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small (<5%) | 53 | 53 | 100.0% | 0.0142 | $0.00 |
| Moderate (5-10%) | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.0063 | $-300.00 |
| Strong (>10%) | 22 | 13 | 59.1% | 0.3441 | $-479.60 |
By Market Type
| Type | Total | Correct | Accuracy | Brier | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| futures | 78 | 69 | 88.5% | 0.1069 | $-779.60 |