Divergent Predictions
Markets where our model disagrees with Polymarket
| Event | Date | Market | Our Prob | Polymarket | Divergence | Edge | Model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Region Winner - NCAA Tournament | 2025-03-31 | Will Michigan win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 95.0% | 0.1% | 95.0% | Strong | backtest_futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| East Region Winner - NCAA Tournament | 2025-03-31 | Will Duke win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 9.5% | 100.0% | 90.5% | Strong | backtest_futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| 2025 ACC Men's Basketball Tournament Winner | 2025-03-17 | Will Duke win the ACC conference tournament? | 9.5% | 100.0% | 90.5% | Strong | backtest_futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Women's March Madness Winner | 2024-04-08 | Will South Carolina win the Women's NCAA tournament? | 0.2% | 83.0% | 82.8% | Strong | backtest_futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| 2025 NCAA Tournament Winner (W) | 2025-04-06 | Will Connecticut win the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament? | 3.0% | 72.5% | 69.5% | Strong | backtest_futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| South Region Winner - NCAA Tournament | 2025-03-31 | Will Auburn win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 0.2% | 68.5% | 68.3% | Strong | backtest_futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| East Region Winner - NCAA Tournament | 2025-03-31 | Will Arizona win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 65.0% | 0.1% | 65.0% | Strong | backtest_futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| 2025 Big 12 Men's Basketball Tournament Winner | 2025-03-17 | Will Arizona win the Big 12 conference tournament? | 65.0% | 0.1% | 65.0% | Strong | backtest_futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Women's March Madness Winner | 2024-04-08 | Will Iowa win the Women's NCAA tournament? | 0.2% | 62.0% | 61.8% | Strong | backtest_futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Big Ten Men's Basketball Tournament Winner | 2025-03-17 | Will Wisconsin win the Big Ten conference tournament? | 0.2% | 60.5% | 60.3% | Strong | backtest_futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Big Ten Men's Basketball Tournament Winner | 2025-03-17 | Will Michigan win the Big Ten conference tournament? | 95.0% | 39.5% | 55.5% | Strong | backtest_futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| West Region Winner - NCAA Tournament | 2025-03-31 | Will Florida win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 50.0% | 100.0% | 50.0% | Strong | backtest_futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Duke be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 9.5% | 58.5% | 49.0% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Nebraska be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 2.1% | 48.9% | 46.8% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Nebraska be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 2.1% | 48.9% | 46.8% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Michigan be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 95.0% | 50.5% | 44.5% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Michigan be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 95.0% | 50.5% | 44.5% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Alabama be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 0.2% | 44.5% | 44.3% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Tennessee be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 0.9% | 45.0% | 44.1% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Tennessee be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 0.9% | 45.0% | 44.1% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Kansas be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 1.8% | 45.5% | 43.7% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Duke be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 12.0% | 55.5% | 43.5% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Purdue be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 7.0% | 50.0% | 43.0% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Purdue be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 7.0% | 50.0% | 43.0% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Alabama be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 0.2% | 42.5% | 42.3% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will North Carolina be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 0.2% | 42.5% | 42.3% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Louisville be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 1.5% | 43.5% | 42.0% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Louisville be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 1.5% | 43.5% | 42.0% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Kansas be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 1.8% | 42.5% | 40.7% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Illinois be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 9.5% | 50.0% | 40.5% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will North Carolina be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 0.2% | 40.5% | 40.3% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Midwest Region Winner - NCAA Tournament | 2025-03-31 | Will Tennessee win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 0.9% | 40.5% | 39.6% | Strong | backtest_futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Illinois be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 12.0% | 50.0% | 38.0% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Duke win by 6+ points against Houston? | 2025-04-06 | Will Duke win by 6+ points against Houston? | 9.5% | 47.0% | 37.5% | Strong | backtest_futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| 2025 SEC Men's Basketball Tournament Winner | 2025-03-17 | Will Tennessee win the SEC Tournament? | 0.9% | 32.5% | 31.6% | Strong | backtest_futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| 2025 NCAA Tournament Winner | 2025-04-07 | Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 80.0% | 48.7% | 31.3% | Strong | backtest_futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Houston be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 80.0% | 50.0% | 30.0% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Houston be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 80.0% | 50.0% | 30.0% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| 2025 NCAA Tournament Winner (W) | 2025-04-06 | Will South Carolina win the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament? | 0.2% | 28.0% | 27.8% | Strong | backtest_futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Gonzaga be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 1.2% | 28.0% | 26.8% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| NCAA March Madness Winner | 2024-04-08 | Will Purdue win the NCAA tournament? | 7.0% | 29.5% | 22.5% | Strong | backtest_futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Gonzaga be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 1.2% | 23.0% | 21.8% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| 2025 Big 12 Men's Basketball Tournament Winner | 2025-03-17 | Will Houston win the Big 12 conference tournament? | 80.0% | 100.0% | 20.0% | Strong | backtest_futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Arkansas be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 0.2% | 20.0% | 19.8% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Arkansas be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 0.2% | 20.0% | 19.8% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will BYU be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 0.2% | 20.0% | 19.8% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will BYU be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 0.2% | 20.0% | 19.8% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Midwest Region Winner - NCAA Tournament | 2025-03-31 | Will Houston win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 80.0% | 60.5% | 19.5% | Strong | backtest_futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Vanderbilt be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 2.7% | 22.0% | 19.3% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |
| Which teams will be a #1 seed in March Madness? | 2026-03-15 | Will Vanderbilt be a number 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball March Madness Tournament? | 2.7% | 22.0% | 19.3% | Strong | futures_barthag | Polymarket ↗ |